Chance of winning the senate
Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. This graph tracks each party’s probability of winning control of the Senate over time.
Senate Seats Projections
Republican: 52
Democrat: 48
This graph tracks each party’s projected seat count in the Senate over time.
Chance of winning each seat
This chart visualizes the current probabilities of each party winning individual races. Circles positioned further to the left indicate a higher likelihood of a Democratic victory, while circles to the right suggest a stronger chance for Republicans. Use the 'DEM' and 'GOP' filters to view states most likely to support the respective parties.
Senate Seats Simulations
These graphs display the distribution of Senate seat counts from 14,000,605 simulations for both Democrats and Republicans. The lighter shaded areas to the left of the dotted line depict scenarios where a party fails to secure a majority, while the darker shaded areas to the right represent majority-winning outcomes. Each bar indicates the percentage of simulations resulting in a specific seat count.
Our model currently projects a 14.5% chance of a 50-50 tie in the Senate.
Featured Races
Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.
Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.
